Factors influencing uptake of protective behaviours by healthcare workers in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: A theory-based mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital infection control policies protect patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) and limit the spread of pathogens, but adherence to COVID-19 guidance varies. We examined hospital HCWs' enactment of social distancing and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic, factors influencing these behaviours, and acceptability and feasibility of strategies to increase social distancing. METHODS: An online, cross-sectional survey (n = 86) and semi-structured interviews (n = 22) with HCWs in two English hospitals during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (May-December 2020). The Capability, Opportunity, Motivation (COM-B) model of behaviour change underpinned survey and topic guide questions. Spearman Rho correlations examined associations between COM-B domains and behaviours. Interviews were analysed using inductive and deductive thematic analysis. Potential strategies to improve social distancing were selected using the Behaviour Change Wheel and discussed in a stakeholder workshop (n = 8 participants). RESULTS: Social distancing enactment was low, with 85% of participants reporting very frequently or always being in close contact with others in communal areas. PPE use was high (88% very frequently or always using PPE in typical working day). Social distancing was associated with Physical Opportunity (e.g., size of physical space), Psychological Capability (e.g., clarity of guidance), and Social Opportunity (e.g., support from managers). Use of PPE was associated with Psychological Capability (e.g., training), Physical Opportunity (e.g., availability), Social Opportunity (e.g., impact on interactions with patients), and Reflective Motivation (e.g., beliefs that PPE is effective). Local champions and team competition were viewed as feasible strategies to improve social distancing. CONCLUSIONS: It is valuable to understand and compare the drivers of individual protective behaviours; when faced with the same level of perceived threat, PPE use was high whereas social distancing was rarely enacted. Identified influences represent targets for intervention strategies in response to future infectious disease outbreaks.

Perceptions and compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures in Southern and Central regions of Mozambique: A quantitative in-person household survey in the districts of Manhiça and Quelimane.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted countries to swiftly implement rigorous preventive measures on a population-wide scale worldwide. However, in low-income countries like Mozambique this was difficult, coupled with a generalised lack of knowledge on how the population understood and complied with these measures. This study assessed community perceptions and implementation of anti-COVID-19 measures recommended by Mozambican authorities in Manhiça and Quelimane districts, including confinement, social distancing, frequent handwashing, mask wearing, and quarantine as the key practices to evaluate. We conducted a cross-sectional quantitative survey in October 2020 and February 2021, interviewing heads of households, face-to-face. The data collected included self-evaluation of compliance and existence of handwashing facilities and face-masks in the households, aided by observations. We present descriptive statistics on perceptions and compliance at individual and household levels. Out of the 770 participants, nearly all (98.7%) were aware of Coronavirus disease, including the term COVID-19 (89.2%). Knowledge varied between districts, with Manhiça participants showing higher levels of sufficient ability to define the disease. The symptoms most mentioned were dry cough (17.8%), fever (15.7%), flu-like symptoms (14.2%), breathing difficulties (13.6%), and headache (13.1%). Participants recognized various transmission modes, including touching infected objects and inhaling infected air. Preventive measures like handwashing with soap or sanitizing hands with alcohol, wearing masks, and social distancing were acknowledged, but the understanding varied. Compliance with these measures was generally low, with fewer than half of respondents reporting adherence to them. Only 30.4% of households had handwashing facilities (of which only 41.0% had water), and masks were often limited to one per person aged 6 years or more. Community members in Manhica and Quelimane were aware of COVID-19 but had limited understanding of what the preventive measures meant, and had lower levels of compliance. Understanding and addressing the factors affecting the proper implementation of these measures is crucial for improving community adherence in preventing infectious diseases with epidemic potential.

Compliance with COVID-19 Physical Distancing Mandates in Oman: The Role of Health Literacy and Internal Health Locus of Control.

BACKGROUND: Research indicates that the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) physical distancing mandates is influenced by several individual factors, including health literacy; internal health locus of control (IHLOC), the belief that physical distancing can reduce COVID-19 risk; social norms; self-efficacy; and perceptions of the benefits and barriers associated with distancing. However, further investigation is needed to understand the links between these factors and compliance intentions. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the mechanism linking these factors with the intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates. METHODS: A total of 759 participants (Mean age = 29.13, standard deviation [SD] = 8.33; 68.5% women) were surveyed online from September 2020 to October 2020. Data were analyzed using ANOVA (analysis of variance) and structural equation modeling. KEY RESULTS: Health literacy was associated with more perceived benefits (ß = .175, p = .001), greater self-efficacy (ß = .193, p < .001), and less perceived barriers (ß = -.391, p < .001). IHLOC was significantly associated with greater perceived benefits (ß = .156, p = .007) and self-efficacy (ß = .294, p < .001). Family descriptive norms were significantly associated with fewer perceived barriers (ß = -.276, p < .001), while injunctive norms were associated with more perceived benefits (ß = .202, p = .001) and higher self-efficacy (ß = .299, p < .001). Intentions to adhere to physical distancing mandates were significantly associated with past compliance (ß = .427, p < .001) and perceived barriers (ß = -.205, p < .001) and benefits (ß = .295, p < .001). Post-hoc mediation analyses revealed several small yet significant indirect effects, highlighting the complex pathways shaping adherence intentions. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies how health literacy, IHLOC, social norms, perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy intricately shape intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates. These findings offer valuable implications for public health policy and interventions. [HLRP: Health Literacy Research and Practice. 2024;8(2):e69-e78.].

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This study examined the factors associated with Omanis' intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates during COVID-19. Results revealed that individuals with higher health literacy perceived fewer barriers and more benefits to physical distancing, making them more willing to comply with mandates. Those who believed their actions could reduce the risk of contracting the virus also reported greater benefits and were more likely to comply.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Results: Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Conclusion: Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Interrupting Effect of Social Distancing on Ischemic Heart Disease, Asthma, Stroke, and Suicide Attempt Patients by PM2.5 Exposure.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to examine the interrupting effect of social distancing (SD) on emergency department (ED) patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, asthma, and suicide attempts by PM2.5 exposure in eight Korean megacities from 2017 to 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used National Emergency Department Information System and AirKorea data. A total of 469014 patients visited EDs from 2017 to 2020. Interrupted time series analysis was employed to examine changes in the level and slope of the time series, relative risk, and confidence intervals (CIs) by PM2.5 exposure. The SD level was added to the sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The interrupted time series analysis demonstrated a significant increase in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) of IHD patients in Seoul (RRR=1.004, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.006) and Busan (RRR=1.007, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.012) post-SD. Regarding stroke, only patients in Seoul exhibited a significant decrease post-SD (RRR=0.995, 95% CI: 0.991, 0.999). No significant changes were observed for asthma in any of the cities. In the case of suicide attempts, Ulsan demonstrated substantial pre-SD (RR=0.827, 95% CI: 0.732, 0.935) and post-SD (RRR=1.200, 95% CI: 1.057, 1.362) differences. CONCLUSION: While the interrupting effect of SD was not as pronounced as anticipated, this study did validate the effectiveness of SD in modifying health behaviors and minimizing avoidable visits to EDs in addition to curtailing the occurrence of infectious diseases.

Investigating the 'Bolsonaro effect' on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil.

Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the 'Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020-2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent 'Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the 'Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

Effect of face-covering use on adherence to other COVID-19 protective behaviours: A systematic review.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns were raised that face covering use may elicit risk compensation; a false sense of security resulting in reduced adherence to other protective behaviours such as physical distancing. This systematic review aimed to investigate the effect of face covering use on adherence to other COVID-19 related protective behaviours. Medline, Embase, PsychInfo, EmCare, medRxiv preprints, Research Square and WHO COVID-19 Research Database were searched for all primary research studies published from 1st January 2020 to 17th May 2022 that investigated the effect of face covering use on adherence to other protective behaviours in public settings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Papers were selected and screened in accordance with the PRISMA framework. Backwards and forwards citation searches of included papers were also conducted on 16th September 2022, with eligible papers published between 1st January 2020 and that date being included. A quality appraisal including risk of bias was assessed using the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics' Quality Criteria Checklist. This review is registered on PROSPERO, number CRD42022331961. 47 papers were included, with quality ranging from low to high. These papers investigated the effects of face covering use and face covering policies on adherence to six categories of behaviour: physical distancing; mobility; face-touching; hand hygiene; close contacts; and generalised protective behaviour. Results reveal no consistent evidence for or against risk compensation, with findings varying according to behaviour and across study types, and therefore confident conclusions cannot be made. Any policy decisions related to face coverings must consider the inconsistencies and caveats in this evidence base.

Mentally healthy living after pandemic social distancing: a study of older Canadians reveals helpful anxiety reduction strategies.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, older Canadians were the most at risk of severe physical harm, including death, and their return to post-COVID life was expected to be especially anxiety-provoking. A study was conducted to obtain nationally representative evidence of older Canadians' self-perceived anxiety levels and their strategies to manage or mitigate it as public health restrictions were lifting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study had a cross-sectional descriptive design. An e-survey was used to collect data from 1327 Canadians aged 60+ stratified by age, sex, and education to resemble the larger general population. Participants completed the Geriatric Anxiety Scale (GAS-10) and indicated which of the 16 Centre for Addictions and Mental Health's (2022) Coping with Stress and Anxiety strategies they were using to manage or mitigate their anxiety when social distancing was lifting. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression analysis were used to explore the data. RESULTS: While, on average, older Canadians were mildly anxious, nearly one-quarter of responders rated their anxiety as severe. Age, sex, perceived health, were statistically significant correlates of anxiety. Six coping strategies were associated with significantly lower anxiety scores. Moreover, accepting some fear and anxiety as normal, challenging worries and anxious thoughts, and practising relaxation/meditation appeared to increase anxiety. CONCLUSION: Older Canadians used multiple strategies to manage or mitigate their anxiety, and seemingly, with more successful than detrimental tries. Practitioners have much to learn and understand about older people's mental health promotion efforts after social distancing, now and for future pandemics.

Factors associated with compliance with barrier gestures and social distancing measures in France.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led many countries to drastically limit social activities. The objective of this study is to describe the factors associated with compliance with protective measures and social distancing in the general adult population in France, between March and December 2020 (first and second waves of the epidemic), before vaccination began at the end of December 2020. METHOD: The data come from the CoviPrev repeated cross-sectional descriptive survey, conducted between March 2020 and December 2022 in metropolitan France. The data collected from March to December 2020 (19 survey waves), from a panel representative of the general population, were used. Three periods were defined: the first epidemic wave (March-April), the inter-wave period (May-June) and the second epidemic wave (November-December). A compliance score was constructed to measure systematic compliance with the five main measures. The association between systematic compliance and different variables (sociodemographic, mental health, level of health literacy, perceived severity of COVID-19, confidence in government, perceived effectiveness of the measures) was described using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models, using the statistical software R. RESULTS: Systematic compliance with the preventive measures changed over time. Regardless of the period, being a woman, being over 50, perceiving COVID-19 as severe, having a high level of health literacy or anxiety were positively associated with compliance. Having a child under 16 years of age and perceiving the measures as effective were positively associated with compliance with the protective measures during the epidemic waves; conversely, having a high level of depression, living alone, not working were negatively associated in the first epidemic wave. Finally, during the inter-wave period, living in an area heavily affected during the first wave and having a high level of education were positively and negatively associated with systematic compliance with the preventive measures, respectively. CONCLUSION: The factors associated with compliance with the protective measures and social distancing evolved during the epidemic. Monitoring this evolution, in order to adapt communication and awareness strategies, is essential in the context of pandemic response.

Morocco's population contact matrices: A crowd dynamics-based approach using aggregated literature data.

Estimation of contact patterns is often based on questionnaires and time-use data. The results obtained using these methods have been used extensively over the years and recently to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also been used to test the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distance. The latter is integrated into epidemiological models by multiplying contact matrices by control functions. We present a novel method that allows the integration of social distancing and other scenarios such as panic. Our method is based on a modified social force model. The model is calibrated using data relating to the movements of individuals and their interactions such as desired walking velocities and interpersonal distances as well as demographic data. We used the framework to assess contact patterns in different social contexts in Morocco. The estimated matrices are extremely assortative and exhibit patterns similar to those observed in other studies including the POLYMOD project. Our findings suggest social distancing would reduce the numbers of contacts by 95%. Further, we estimated the effect of panic on contact patterns, which indicated an increase in the number of contacts of 11%. This approach could be an alternative to questionnaire-based methods in the study of non-pharmaceutical measures and other specific scenarios such as rush hours. It also provides a substitute for estimating children's contact patterns which are typically assessed through parental proxy reporting in surveys.

Lockdown, Curfew, and Social Distancing.

People worldwide have been affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was the fifth pandemic after the 1918 flu pandemic. People have had their sense of normality torn apart, and these changes have taken a toll on their mental health.

Effects of social distancing provoked by COVID-19 pandemic in the functional capacity and cognitive function in nonagenarians and centenarians.

INTRODUCTION: Due to the rapid advance of coronavírus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, social distancing was the main way to reduce the transmission of the virus. Although this measure was efficient and necessary, the social distancing had severe consequences for physical function, mainly in older individuals. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of social distancing in the functional and cognitive capacity of community-dwelling oldest-old adults. METHODS: The present study is part of a larger prospective cohort study. Fifteen participants aged 90 years old or older were assessed in the 8-foot-timed-up-and-go test (8-footTUG), sit-to-stand-up test (STS), handgrip strength test (HGS), Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Katz Index and Lawton Scale before and after one year of social distancing. RESULTS: A significant worsening in the 8-footTUG and MMSE score was observed, while there were no significant changes in the other variables. When analyzing the decreases in relation to previous functional capacity, it was observed that individuals categorized as dependent by STS cut-off points had the worst decreases in functional capacity. CONCLUSION: The social distancing provoked by COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the 8-footTUG and cognition. Moreover, individuals dependents showed greater decline in their functional capacity.

An evaluation of the impact of mitigation policies on health and the economy by managing social distancing during outbreaks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated various unavoidable social restrictions, leading to questions about the effectiveness of public emergency interventions and their impact economic growth. Block et al. (2020) conducted a notably study using an agent-based model to evaluate policies for reducing contact and demonstrated how choices in contact behavior can influence the rate and spread of the virus. However, their approach did not consider the economic consequences of these social restrictions. In response, we propose a set of strategies for governments to plan and evaluate policies during emergencies, aiming to contain infections while minimizing negative economic consequences. Our results indicate that there is no trade-off between containment strategies and economic output loss, making containment measures necessary policy instruments. However, potential trade-offs do emerge when selecting the most effective strategy. In this context, we propose and evaluate various policy alternatives to extreme "social distancing" measures, which can partially restore essential social interactions while preventing economic disasters induced by productivity losses.

Evaluating the dynamic interplay of social distancing policies regarding airborne pathogens through a temporal interaction-driven model that uses real-world and synthetic data.

OBJECTIVE: The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has exhibited diverse patterns of spread across countries and communities, emphasizing the need to consider the underlying population dynamics in modeling its progression and the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in combating viral transmission within human communities. Such an understanding requires accurate modeling of the interplay between the community dynamics and the disease propagation dynamics within the community. METHODS: We build on an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks that we have defined. Using the model, we evaluate the effectiveness of temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal social distancing policies. Temporal social distancing involves a pure dilation of the timeline while preserving individual activity potential and thus prolonging the period of interaction; spatial distancing corresponds to social distancing pods; and spatiotemporal distancing pertains to the situation in which fixed subgroups of the overall group meet at alternate times. We evaluate these social distancing policies over real-world interactions' data and over history-preserving synthetic temporal random networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the policies for the disease's with different number of initial patients, corresponding to either the phase in the progression of the infection through a community or the number of patients infected together at the initial infection event. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with the meetings' duration. RESULTS: Our results demonstrate the superiority of decreasing social interactions (i.e., time dilation) within the community over partial isolation strategies, such as the spatial distancing pods and the spatiotemporal distancing strategy. In addition, we found that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., pathogens that require a longer exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This result is surprising since the pathogens may follow different paths. However, we demonstrate that the dilation of the timeline considerably slows the spread of the slower pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.

Social Distance Warriors Should Not Be Regarded as Moral Exemplars in a Pandemic Nor as Paragons of Politeness: A Response to Shaw.

In a recent article, Shaw contrasts his own supposed good behaviour, as that of a self-proclaimed "social distance warrior" with the alleged rude behaviour of one of his relatives, Jack, at social events in the former's house in Scotland in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. He does so to illustrate and support his claims that it was wrong and rude to fail to comply with the governmental advice regarding social distancing because we had a responsibility "to minimize risk" and not wrong nor rude to challenge and cajole those people who failed to do so. This article shows that his claims are contestable. It suggests that his own behaviour was no better than Jack's.

Too anthropomorphized to keep distance: The role of social psychological distance on meat inclinations.

Keeping a distance from food animals helps alleviate moral conflicts associated with meat consumption. Prior research on the 'meat paradox' has shown that physical distance from animals reduces negative emotional responses when consuming meat. However, even with physical distance, the presence of animals in meat advertisements and packaging can establish psychological contact. The impact of psychological distance on meat consumption and purchase inclinations has not been well explored. Through four experiments, we discovered that animal anthropomorphism psychologically brings consumers closer to food animals, resulting in reduced intentions to consume and purchase meat. Anthropomorphized animal images notably reduced social psychological distance for consumers with moderate to high (vs. lower) levels of anthropomorphic tendencies. Furthermore, the effect of anthropomorphism was influenced by moral self-efficacy. Specifically, when social psychological distance was reduced, consumers with higher (vs. lower) moral self-efficacy exhibited a significant decrease in their willingness to consume and purchase meat. These findings expand our understanding of the role of anthropomorphism in meat marketing, its limitations, and offer insights for sales strategies. Additionally, the research could inform public health policies on meat consumption, addressing environmental and ethical concerns tied to meat production amid growing worries about animal welfare.

Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.

The COVID-19 pandemic experience has highlighted the importance of developing general control principles to inform future pandemic preparedness based on the tension between the different control options, ranging from elimination to mitigation, and related costs. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing has been confirmed to be the critical response tool until vaccines become available. Open-loop optimal control of a transmission model for COVID-19 in one of its most aggressive outbreaks is used to identify the best social distancing policies aimed at balancing the direct epidemiological costs of a threatening epidemic with its indirect (i.e., societal level) costs arising from enduring control measures. In particular, we analyse how optimal social distancing varies according to three key policy factors, namely, the degree of prioritization of indirect costs, the adherence to control measures, and the timeliness of intervention. As the prioritization of indirect costs increases, (i) the corresponding optimal distancing policy suddenly switches from elimination to suppression and, finally, to mitigation; (ii) the "effective" mitigation region-where hospitals' overwhelming is prevented-is dramatically narrow and shows multiple control waves; and (iii) a delicate balance emerges, whereby low adherence and lack of timeliness inevitably force ineffective mitigation as the only accessible policy option. The present results show the importance of open-loop optimal control, which is traditionally absent in public health preparedness, for studying the suppression-mitigation trade-off and supplying robust preparedness guidelines.

Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte-Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues.

The pandemic caused millions of deaths around the world and forced governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of Coronavirus. Understanding the impact of social distancing measures on urban mobility and the number of COVID-19 cases allows governments to change public policies according to the evolution of the pandemic and plan ahead. Given the increasing rates of vaccination worldwide, immunization data may also represent an important predictor of COVID-19 cases. This study investigates the impact of urban mobility and vaccination upon COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using Prophet and ARIMA models to predict future outcomes. The developed models generated projections fairly close to real numbers, and some inferences were drawn through experimentation. Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic shortly after the first case was officially registered on February 25th, 2020. In response, several municipalities adopted lockdown (total or partial) measures to minimize the risk of new infections. Here, we propose prediction models which take into account mobility and vaccination data to predict new COVID-19 cases.

Perception of interpersonal distance and social distancing before and during COVID-19 pandemic.

Since COVID-19 is easily transmitted among people in close physical proximity, the focus of epidemiological policy during the COVID-19 crisis included major restrictions on interpersonal distance. However, the way in which distance restrictions affected spatial perception is unclear. In the current study, we examined interpersonal distance preferences and perceptions at three time points: pre-pandemic, early post-pandemic, and late post-pandemic. The results indicate that following the pandemic outbreak, people perceived others as farther away than they actually were, suggesting that the distance restrictions were associated with an enlargement of perceived interpersonal distance. Interestingly, however, people maintained the same distance from one another as before the outbreak, indicating no change in actual distance behavior due to the risk of infection. These findings suggest that COVID-19 was associated with a change in the way distance is perceived, while in practice, people maintain the same distance as before. In contrast, COVID-related anxiety predicted both a preference for maintaining a greater distance and a bias toward underestimating perceived distance from others. Thus, individuals who were highly fearful of COVID-19 perceived other people to be closer than they actually were and preferred to maintain a larger distance from them. The results suggest that subjective risk can lead to an increased perception of danger and a subsequent change in behavior. Taken together, even when behaviors should logically change, the decision-making process can be based on distorted perceptions. This insight may be used to predict public compliance.